Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 19.250454 23.248622 27.684854 32.946305 38.989136 45.684823 53.636554
2025-02-16 13.449642 18.658374 25.073937 33.439923 43.933576 56.527355 72.637868
2025-02-23 10.002256 15.531721 22.930088 33.299872 47.174739 64.795146 88.517431
2025-03-02 7.569275 13.023863 20.880177 32.598090 49.146376 71.152195 102.008660
2025-03-09 6.009319 11.357132 19.585395 32.540304 51.692864 78.154363 116.509959
2025-03-16 4.459132 9.319573 17.334993 30.671926 51.311255 80.913845 125.215006
2025-03-23 3.821023 8.662019 17.096117 31.741776 55.203644 89.803945 142.811863
2025-03-30 3.065196 7.603641 15.997581 31.250664 56.583798 95.028648 155.346411
2025-04-06 2.744783 7.317399 16.181065 32.860404 61.329439 105.466731 175.945608
2025-04-13 2.022369 5.997781 14.246848 30.558531 59.480910 105.659347 181.186367
2025-04-20 1.736913 5.580163 13.964382 31.144794 62.438456 113.438100 198.241764
2025-04-27 1.528177 5.292304 13.891940 32.091973 66.049771 122.404072 217.481853
2025-05-04 1.287936 4.892951 13.602321 32.755065 69.511190 131.805046 238.672480
2025-05-11 1.080080 4.520735 13.322531 33.437811 73.130862 141.798487 261.521516
2025-05-18 0.865266 4.040906 12.694609 33.311323 75.217050 149.296568 280.653611
2025-05-25 0.667774 3.523629 11.858248 32.610290 76.115051 154.754256 296.622338
2025-06-01 0.535420 3.169236 11.353708 32.552554 78.220477 162.387572 316.507211
2025-06-08 0.375591 2.605050 10.138964 30.683607 76.513810 163.081841 324.590775
2025-06-15 0.325210 2.487052 10.167998 31.753787 80.884225 174.995375 352.445193
2025-06-22 0.249525 2.193003 9.594325 31.262524 81.927671 180.802309 369.856796
2025-06-29 0.225782 2.160825 9.841430 32.872756 87.572444 195.468665 403.426367
2025-07-06 0.147247 1.730634 8.651410 30.570178 84.486989 193.403042 407.066247
2025-07-13 0.122078 1.621349 8.545809 31.156622 87.860898 203.904762 433.736555